Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE)

The greatest earthquake that reasonably could be generated by a specific seismic source, based on seismological and geologic evidence and interpretations. The MCE is often associated with a recurrence interval of 10,000 years.

(Source:  Large Dams the First Structures Designed Systematically Against Earthquakes, Martin Wieland, ICOLD,  The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, October 12-17, 2008